|Withdrawal Sim
Withdrawal Simulation
Plan your retirement withdrawals with Monte Carlo simulation
Simulation Parameters
4%
$40,000/year ($3,333/month)
30 years
2.5%
Expected Return: 7% | Volatility: 10.5%
Portfolio Survival Rate
88.8%
Risk Level: Moderate
Median Final Value
$1.9M
After 30 years
Safe Withdrawal Rate
3.5%
95% survival probability
Portfolio Value Over Time
Confidence intervals showing range of possible outcomes
200%100%0%
Year 0Year 15Year 30
25th-75th Percentile
5th-95th Percentile
Median
Recommendations
Consider Reducing Withdrawal Rate
Your 4% rate exceeds the safe rate of 3.5%. Consider reducing to $35,000/year.
Portfolio Depletion Risk
There's a 11% chance of running out of money. Consider a more conservative withdrawal strategy or extending your time horizon.
The 4% Rule
The traditional 4% rule suggests withdrawing 4% in year one, then adjusting for inflation. This historically provided a 95%+ success rate over 30 years with a 60/40 portfolio.